An accident is like a tumor that will sooner or later.
In 2018, trade frictions, global stock market downturns, increased supervision, frequent layoffs… Under the influence of the two-wheel cycle of large and small environments, startup financing and survival have become difficult, and some of them have tried to catch up with the listed buses.
The giants are not living very easily. Baidu’s former COO Lu Qi left, the dripping downwind event, Facebook’s data leak scandal. The loopholes in company management or business have suddenly exploded, and their roots have long been buried.
The market is more demanding than ever – some mistakes are not wrong, but not good enough. Tencent was questioned without dreams, and lately added cloud computing. Ofo struggled against various difficulties and managed to survive 2018. Jingdong began to defend the younger brothers who had been optimistic, and Facebook faced stricter supervision and high-priced tickets.
The interesting thing about business is change, there is no king forever. Apple’s momentum is dim, and Microsoft, which has been quiet for many years, has returned to the top of the global market capitalization with innovation this year. The market value of the establishment of only three years is close to Jingdong. The momentum of the rapid byte jump to Baidu and Tencent challenge.
The headwind does not necessarily turn over, it means picking and shuffling, leaving only healthy and powerful players. 2018 Like a watershed, the competition in the new economy will become more and more cruel and fierce.
We selected the top ten representative business events of the year to draw a full stop for 2018:
Liu Qiangdong’s Black Swan Event: An accident detonated the hidden crisis of Jingdong
Business influence: ★★★★★
Social attention: ★★★★★
The unexpected storm of Liu Qiangdong’s trip to the United States put the challenge of Jingdong naked on the table.
At the beginning of September, a message about “Liu Qiangdong was arrested in Minnesota for sexual assault of female college students in the United States” was fermented on the Internet. After the sudden occurrence of the incident, it has been turned around and it is still pending.
Just like the Note 7 bomber door, it caused Samsung’s downturn in the mobile phone market. Many people blame Samsung for its failure to retreat to the Chinese market. In fact, Samsung has gradually faded in the Chinese market before, due to channel pressure and product planning missteps.
Liu Qiangdong’s personal storm will have a result sooner or later. But behind this, the test of Jingdong’s business and future growth will undoubtedly last longer.
With the release of the third-quarter earnings report, various “under-expected” indicators made JD’s share price hit hard: four and a half years of listing, JD.com’s share price once fell back to the origin of the issue price of $19. In fact, from February 26, Jingdong’s share price has not risen again. In two months, the market value evaporated by 1166.2 billion yuan, down more than 30%.
Jingdong was bleak by the capital market, not only because of the black swan incident of Liu Qiangdong, but also because of the development of the traditional online retailer in Jingdong, there are some problems to be solved.
Throughout the industry, in 2018, the overall growth of online retail sales in China fell into a bottleneck, and mainstream e-commerce companies failed to offer a sufficiently bright financial report. JD is no exception. For a long time, Jingdong’s share price has been “top” by the growth rate, and “high growth story” has been used to impress investors. However, compared with competitors, Jingdong’s high growth story may not be perfect.
Since the listing four years ago, the growth rate of the first rival Ali has been greater than that of Jingdong, and the revenue can maintain 50% growth every season. In contrast, Jingdong, the latest quarterly earnings report only surrendered the answer to 25.1% revenue growth.
On the other hand, the rapid rise of the fight has caused JD to suffer a double attack. In the latest quarter, GMV increased by 43%, 231% year-on-year, and annual active buyers increased by 144% year-on-year, an increase of 42 million from the previous quarter. Jingdong GMV grew by only 30% year-on-year, and annual active users fell for the first time. Fighting more and more in the evening of the financial report closed up 16.63%, Jingdong fell sharply, and the market value gap with the fight to shrink to 2.6 billion.
Jingdong and the fight a lot, has been seen as Tencent to curb Ali’s left palm and right arm. With the Taobao and the fight to occupy the city, the Jingdong, which looked at the fire across the bank, became the “fish” in the pool that was hit by the city gate.
Although the current situation is not optimistic, in the long run, JD may not always be depressed, and still have the opportunity to turn over.
In order to maintain its core competitiveness and respond to the impact and impact of new retail, JD.com has been increasing its spending on logistics, technology research and development and investment. From the perspective of assets, warehousing and logistics have invested heavily in the early stage, and they have not achieved the expected profit in the short term. However, with the volume of Jingdong, the future will be very rapid. Jingdong CFO Huang Xuande also said that 2018 is a very heavy capital expenditure year, and it is expected to complete the heaviest investment phase this year, and will be moderated in 2019.
Jingdong is transforming from “rough development” to economical companies. Its open logistics sector and the iterative digital technology sector have continued to imagine. In addition, if Jingdong can successfully defend against the expansion of the market before the closure of the window period, and convince the capital market with strong growth, there will be opportunities to stand up again.
When Jingdong came to this step, the black swan incident was not the “culprit.” Its current share price has been underestimated, and it is worth noting how to give confidence to the inside and outside and get out of the trough.
Drip Downwind Event: Unlimited “Cash Cow” Business
Business influence: ★★★★★
Social attention: ★★★★★
It is already certain that many of the plans for the second half of the year were disrupted by the day of August 24.
This must be the day that Didi management is most reluctant to recall this year. On the afternoon of August 24th, Zhejiang Yueqing female passenger Zhao was killed by the driver Zhong Mou when he was on the drip train and went from Yongqiao County to Hongqiao Town. Since then, in almost all news articles related to Didi, this “winding event” is inevitably mentioned.
The user first felt the change. First, the drip and windmill business was forced to go offline, and the one-week night rectification made people feel the “difficult to drive a car”, followed by a one-click alarm and recording function that was forced to go online. This former business and data-oriented company, Claiming to be “All in” safe.
In recent months, Didi has continuously communicated its obedience and rectification. Even the latest organizational restructuring is related to this. The express train and the special train have merged. It seems that this is more like the inevitable adjustment made by Didi in the face of “compliance”: the express train is the key line of business of “compliance” and will be the biggest impact. It is relatively easy to “compliance” with luxury cars. At this time, they can be combined and adjusted as a whole.
On the one hand, the windmill business as a “cash cow” continues to go offline indefinitely, on the other hand, in the face of the government’s strict supervision and the slowdown in the listing process, the structural adjustments made by this Didi seem to have A trace of sadness.
Some businesses have also been affected. Before the ride, Didi plans to test the water business in the second half of the year, so it was put on hold indefinitely; in the first half of the year, the hot take-out business with the US group also quietly stopped further expansion – an insider said that if there is no downwind In the car incident, the take-away business would not have been tightened so quickly. After the accident, its importance was “reduced”. This is just the details we know. In fact, “many business developments and processes have been disrupted, some have been suspended, and some businesses simply do not do it. There are a lot of things you know and there are many. You have never heard of it.”
There are also some affiliates whose fate has been changed. According to financial reports, the original Didi has decided to sign the ofo’s acquisition agreement, but after the incident, the plan has been suspended. For ofo, if it can be acquired in the second half of this year, this will be a relatively good solution, but now, there is no such thing.
The influence of the accident also runs through the entire network of the car, leaving almost no dead ends. In addition to the drop, the first car about the car, the Shenzhou special car, Cao Cao special car, easy to get, the US group travel network about car platform and 嘀嗒 trip, Gaode Shunfeng and other companies have ushered in the Ministry of Communications and other inspection groups. It’s like an exam that no one can predict in advance, and each platform can only use its own means.
The safety function innovation under tremendous pressure has set a new safety standard for the whole travel industry to a certain extent, such as recording, blacklist and one-button alarm, including industry participants such as SAIC and Meituan.
These have at least made people realize that although the travel market is huge, one foot in the public service field has become inevitable in the face of strong government supervision. And security has become the biggest barrier in this industry.
Totem Storm: The Battle of the Future
Business influence: ★★★★★
Social attention: ★★★★
Byte jitter is the only small giant that has not been touched by BAT capital, but its rapid rise has caused these giants to worry. Perhaps the most dangerous of these is Tencent.
Although the two have competition in news aggregating products, Ma Huateng’s “Dongxing Meal” invited Zhang Yiming to drink the wine together, but the explosive growth during the Spring Festival caused the relationship to turn sharply. The two CEOs were short in the circle of friends. The verbal dispute between video plagiarism and blockade has completely triggered the “head-to-head battle.”
At the beginning of June, the “Teng Teng Battle” reached its climax. The byte hopping has counted Ten Commander’s eight “crimes” for banned its products, and sued it to the court on the grounds of unfair competition and demanded compensation of 90 million yuan; Tencent also asked for a push from the byte. Push the apology in full and compensate for 1 yuan.
Some people think that “The Teng Teng Battle” is another major crisis that Tencent encountered after the 3Q war. Short video not only eroded the user’s time but also invigorated Tencent’s social foundation. Ma Huateng said that he would try to combine social and short video and live broadcast. The subsequent bursts include 14 short videos including micro-vision and video, but they did not create explosives. Earlier, today’s headline new CEO Chen Lin still does not forget, short video is not a slogan, look at the 14 products launched by friends can judge. The latest data shows that the vibrato has lived 400 million monthly lives and 200 million daily lives.
Looking back, the 3Q war allowed Tencent to propose an open strategy that has been in place for many years, focusing on the core business of social, digital content and the Internet + “two and a half.” It is undeniable that the rise of bytebeats has divided the user time of Tencent, and the two sides have also formed fierce competition in the field of news aggregation products, information flow products and short video. However, the impact of the “Teng Teng War” seems to be much smaller than the 3Q war. The former did not fundamentally change Tencent’s strategy.
In the first half of the year, Tencent’s financial report was not ideal, and the stock price fluctuated sharply. However, the main reason is that the game’s main business growth is weak, coupled with limited game version approval and intensive game regulation policies, which makes the game rarely decline year-on-year. The third organizational restructuring, rooted in the consumer Internet, and embraced the industrial Internet, is Tencent’s response to various external challenges. In addition to dealing with competitors such as bytebeat, Tencent urgently needs new growth points such as cloud business and advertising to boost investor confidence.
During the same period, bytebeats also encountered a crisis. Its headlines, vibrato, volcano video, watermelon video, etc. have faced rectification, and the connotation has even been permanently shut down. This is not a small blow to Zhang Yiming, he publicly released a reflection letter of apology, and the company’s valuation has also dropped a bit. Subsequent bytebeats continue to incubate new products and accelerate overseas expansion to increase company valuation. Previously, the bytebeat has completed no less than $2.5 billion in Pre-IPO financing, with a valuation of $75 billion; it is still working on $3 billion in bond financing and $10 billion in byte bounce funds. And began to run wildly.
At the beginning of December, the “head-to-head battle” seemed to have signs of re-igniting. The bytebeat may have to launch a separate IM product to chat, and the former employees of the WeChat team have been secretly researched and developed in the company’s gym for a long time. Entering the long-lost social field and entering the core territory of Tencent, this is the attack that Tencent has once again launched on Tencent. In the first few stages, the winning byte will be beaten, will it succeed, and Tencent will make a counterattack, which will be the next highlight.
After the content information, bytebeat has been involved in games, e-commerce, social and other fields, and its boundaries have become wider and wider. Whether it can hold this glory is the test of it.
The economy is declining, the capital is cold, the layoffs are constant, and the bytebeat is expanding. The number of employees has increased from 4,000 people last year to over 30,000. It has grown through challengers and subversives, not only breaking through the ceilings built by BAT, but also trying to join them.
Facebook: Light up the user data leak scandal, a shocking alarm
Business influence: ★★★★★
Social attention: ★★★
This year, Facebook experienced the biggest crisis in history.
On March 18th, the Cambridge Analytica data scandal broke out, not only leaking 50 million user data, but also allegedly affecting the US election and evolving into a national security incident.
This has affected the confidence of users and capital markets in Facebook. In the seven trading days after the incident broke out, Facebook’s share price plummeted 18% and the market value lost $95 billion. According to the Pew Research survey, about 50% of respondents suspended Facebook APIs for weeks after the Cambridge analysis data scandal. 26% of people uninstall directly, and the total amount of long-term MAU may be affected.
After the introduction of Europe’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulations), it also issued a 3.9 billion euro (about 29 billion yuan) ticket to Facebook.
A data breach scandal was again exposed in September, affecting 90 million users. The March scandal, because Cambridge Analytics “reasonably” used Facebook’s data interface, made Facebook’s business model morally condemned. And the September scandal went even further, shaking people’s confidence in Facebook’s security technology.
Facebook has stabilized the situation with excellent public relations and stable performance. In mid-July, Facebook’s market value exceeded $600 billion for the first time. But the data breach scandal will have a long-term impact on Facebook’s brand image and user word of mouth, which is a shocking alarm for Facebook.
In order to strengthen the review, the number of Facebook employees increased by 45% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, and total capital expenditure increased by 53% year-on-year.
In October, several major Facebook shareholders also submitted a proposal calling on Zuckerberg to resign as chairman of the board. Although this is symbolic, because Zuckerberg has almost all voting rights, it also reflects investor dissatisfaction with Zuckerberg and Facebook.
The slowdown in growth is a bigger test than the data scandal. The second-quarter earnings were less than expected, and Facebook Chief Financial Officer David Wehner said that operating margins will fall to 30%-40% in the next two years, which is “the unprecedented reduction in their unprecedented forecast figures.” The impact on stock prices was staggering. On July 26, Facebook’s share price plummeted 19%, erasing a market value of about $100 billion in a single day, creating the largest single-day drop in US historical listings.
The Facebook app’s user and monetization capabilities are all at the end of the growth cycle, but Instagram and WhatsApp are more attractive to young people, and with these two apps, Facebook can still maintain good growth.
As Facebook’s performance growth has dropped from 40% to 30%-35%, user leak scandals continue to be affected, and Facebook’s market capitalization will continue to be under pressure. In addition, Facebook still has concerns about profitability due to the growth model of relying on advertising. In contrast, Facebook’s main competitors, Google, Amazon, and Tencent are all a variety of business layouts, and businesses that do not rely on online traffic have a certain size. Facebook also needs to actively explore the growth model that is free from relying solely on advertising.
The rise of new economic companies: mobile Internet mature VS preemptive listing anxiety
Business influence: ★★★★★
Social attention: ★★★
In 2018, the new economic companies ushered in the tide of listing. Both the total amount and the industries involved were bumper years, including many industry giants such as Xiaomi, Didi, and Dieduo. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange also had a wonder of the IPO of eight companies a day.
The mobile Internet has developed to a certain stage, many new economic companies have the need for listing financing, and investors have the need to withdraw.
Bao Haijie, managing director of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and head of the listing and distribution service department, said: “From the perspective of the company’s development, so many new economic companies in China have come to a point in time after so many years of development. It is a relatively mature one. Considering the stage of listing, this is a relatively natural thing. In addition, PE has invested in a certain period of time, and with the need to withdraw from the bar, listing is an important channel for exiting the bar.”
At the same time, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are trying to attract new economic companies. For this reason, A-shares have introduced CDR policies, and Hong Kong stocks have introduced new policies with different rights in the same stocks. (The Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing rules do not define what is a new economy, listing rules. A section that allows the use of different shares of the same stock, called an innovative industry company). Starting from the interconnection of the two places, the system dividends of H-shares, 3+H, different shares, and loss-making are gradually released.
The maturity of the new economic companies and the help of policies have led to a large number of companies moving towards IPOs, with the Hong Kong stock market particularly active.
Deloitte predicts that there will be about 180 new IPOs in Hong Kong in 2018, with financing ranging from HK$160 billion to HK$190 billion. The Northeast Securities report shows that since the summer, the number of mainland-listed companies in Hong Kong has grown at a rate of more than 10 per month. The number of IPO companies going to Hong Kong in the whole year is expected to break through 100, which is the highest in history.
In this situation, the listing of several giants has provided many hot spots to the market. On July 9, Xiaomi was listed as the first shareholding company of Hong Kong stocks with a stock price of HK$17 and a market capitalization of US$54.3 billion. On September 20th, the US Mission Review became the second listed company in Hong Kong with the same rights. On July 26th, the US East time, the fight was listed on the NASDAQ.
In addition, there are a number of giants with more than 10 billion US dollars in preparation for the listing, including Ant Financial, Didi Travel, Aliyun, Byte Beat, Lu Jin, and so on.
But behind this wave of listings, it also revealed an anxiety, which comes from the lack of money in the primary market and the expected deterioration of the listing environment.
Wang Kai, CEO of Yikai Capital, said in an interview with entrepreneurs, “The funds flowing into the primary market in the second half of this year will fall by a cliff, at least 50-60%, or even 70-80%. It is getting harder and harder to raise funds. .”
This means that the unicorns will find it harder and harder to get the money. Many of the companies that started on the mobile Internet have been expanding rapidly by burning money, and have not been able to achieve profitability. To continue to gain capital support, the unicorns have chosen to go to the secondary market.
In addition, the fear of the bursting of the technology bubble has also made these companies pre-emptively listed and even listed on the blood. Once the technology bubble bursts and there is not enough capital reserves, many unicorns will have difficulty resisting the cold winter, so even if the bloodshed goes on the market, they must be the first to prepare ammunition and cotton coats in the secondary market. Because tomorrow may not be as good as today.
The trade war that continues for one year and is still in progress has a lasting impact on the macro economy and capital markets. The sluggishness of technology stocks this year may also exacerbate the urgency of startup IPOs.
Lu Qi left: Baidu lost the helmsman after twisting the channel
Business influence: ★★★★
Social attention: ★★★
Different from Tencent and Ali, the biggest expectation of Baidu in the past two years is not on the top, but Lu Qi. Lu Qi left Baidu and had a major impact on the fate of both sides.
On January 17, 2017, Lu Qi, who served as Microsoft’s global executive vice president, joined Baidu. Since then, he has started drastic reforms and has made major adjustments in strategy, organization, and values.
Strategically, Lu Qi pulled Baidu back from O2O business and AI in to AI. Since the missed mobile Internet opportunity, the 20 billion invested O2O has also been slammed, and the hope of Baidu’s comeback is pinned on AI.
At the same time, it also changed blood with a large area of executives. Vice President and Baidu Demi General Manager Zeng Liang, Chief Scientist Wu Enda, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Automated Driving Division Wang Jin, Vice President Lu Fubin, Vice President Yan Xuebin, except for Zeng Liang’s resignation due to receiving benefits, others are due to “personal development” The reason is to leave the company. Just in March of this year, Hu Wei, general manager of Baidu Post Bar Division, Li Dongyu, general manager of Baidu Maps Division, and Li Jing (Li called beast), vice president of 90, also left.
However, on May 18 this year, Lu Qi also left. A Baidu insider revealed to 36 that Lu Qi’s departure was related to the political struggle with Baidu’s search executives. Zhang Yaqin, Xiang Hailong, Wang Haifeng, Zhu Guang and others in charge of Baidu’s main business departments will report directly to Li Yanhong.
Lu Qi’s share price in Baidu has increased by nearly 60% in Baidu’s more than 400 days. For Lu Qi’s departure, Baidu also “favored and sentiment”, and the market value fell 14% ($13.7 billion) in two days, which is very interesting.
For Baidu, fortunately, before Lu Qi left, the management teams of the two AI businesses have been set up: Li Zhenyu is responsible for the Intelligent Driving Business Group (IDG), and Jing Hao is responsible for the Smart Life Business Group (SLG). .
But the question is how to attract core talent to stay and join. In recent years, Baidu has lost more than 40 technical bulls in the AI field, from Wu Enda, Lin Yuanqing, Zhang Wei, Yu Kai, and Dai Wenyuan. People in the industry even call Baidu a “black hole for talent.”
Lu Qi helped Baidu to correct the business track and company ethos, and built the AI team, but from the initial construction of the structure to become a combat company, there is still a distance. Lu Qi’s departure took away some of the confidence of Baidu, and Baidu relied on performance to win back this confidence.
Baidu’s three quarterly reports show that Baidu’s AI business, whether it is the DuerOS IoT ecosystem or the unmanned commercialization, is steadily advancing. As of September this year, the number of activations of DuerOS smart devices reached 141 million units, an increase of 41% from the previous month. Baidu’s Apollo ecosystem has 130 partners. Baidu expects that by 2019, the number of vehicles equipped with the Apollo L4 autopilot will reach 10,000.
In the past three years, Ali and Tencent’s single-quarter revenues have risen from 260 billion to more than 80 billion, but Baidu’s revenue has stagnated, and it has not risen to 28.2 billion in the third quarter of this year. Three years ago, there was still some rationality in juxtaposition of BAT, but now the three are clearly not on an echelon, and the gap in market value can be clearly reflected. From the perspective of market capitalization or valuation, Baidu can only join JD, Xiaomi and TMD in the second echelon of China’s Internet.
AI is the hope of Baidu’s comeback. Lu Qi is the helmsman. Now the helmsman is gone. How to open this big ship and wait for the window of commercialization of AI and intelligent driving has become a problem that Li Yanhong has to think about.
Of course, after the two sides “break up,” they have to say where Lu Qi is going. For Lu Qi at this stage, after leaving Baidu, there is not much chance for Lu Qi to be unyielding. The position of the second or third handle of the major technology giants has been filled. In August, Lu Qi’s next home surfaced. He became the No. 1 employee and helm of YC China, and he will look for Google and Apple in China 10 years later.
New regulations for asset management: the first-tier market winter
Business influence: ★★★★
Social attention: ★★★
Since 2017, the saying of “capital winter” has gradually begun. The introduction of the newest regulations in the history of capital management in April this year has intensified this situation.
On the evening of April 27, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of China Insurance Supervision and Administration Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange four ministries jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on Regulating Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions”, which aims to regulate The asset management business of financial institutions shall harmonize the regulatory standards for similar asset management products, effectively prevent and control financial risks, and better serve the real economy.
The new rules for asset management are to break the gap, reduce leverage, reduce risks and reduce costs. The biggest change in the official draft is that the transition period of the new asset management policy will be extended to the end of 2020. (The draft opinion is scheduled to be transitioned to the end of June 2019, and the market expectation is moderately extended until the end of 2019), which indicates that the regulatory layer ensures The market is stable, giving financial institutions sufficient adjustment and transformation time.
It is difficult for banks to raise funds themselves and spread to the primary market. Small and medium-sized VC/PEs have begun to experience dark times.
According to the VC/PE statistics report of the Research Institute, only 139 funds entered the fundraising phase in the third quarter of 2018, down 41.35% year-on-year; the target fundraising scale was 54.553 billion US dollars, a drop of 80% year-on-year. VC/PE funds are deeply mired in fundraising difficulties, and the number of newly established funds and the total size of target fundraising have both declined.
However, under the cold winter, head institutions such as Sequoia Capital and IDG are still favored by capital. According to the VC/PE statistical report of the Institute, the average single investment amount in 2018 was a record high, mainly due to the large-scale financing of some star projects and the active strategic layout of some head institutions.
The monetary tightening of the primary market has made it more difficult for startups to raise funds. The consequent inferior projects have been eliminated, the valuation bubble has been squeezed, and the sharing of bicycle companies has been confirmed. In addition, as mentioned above, the money shortage in the primary market has indirectly prompted more unicorns to choose to go public.
But star projects and potential tracks are still not difficult to finance. Joint office, online education and other industries have continued to raise funds. In June this year, VIPKID announced that it has completed the D + round of financing of 500 million US dollars. At this point, VIPKID will become the only educational enterprise in China with a valuation of more than 20 billion yuan.
Regardless of investment institutions or startups, the capital winter has accelerated the process of survival of the fittest. In addition, the introduction of the most stringent new regulations has also given the entire primary market the opportunity to reflect and correct.
Li Xiao, director of Gofi Asset Investment, said that the industry chain of China’s primary market is still a “water tap” model, mainly relying on the continuous inflow of incremental funds. The problem with the “faucet” model is that it relies particularly on the supply of new source funds. When the switch is closed, the entire industry is called bitter.
On the other hand, the new regulations on asset management will force the PE/VC industry in the primary market to correct the situation and reduce the dependence on bank funds, so that the industry itself will gradually form a sustainable and recyclable ecosystem.
Tencent’s architecture adjustment: awakening to the B-end market
Business influence: ★★★★
Social attention: ★★★
Tencent has not been a happy year. Only from the stock price can be seen, the year-to-date (as of December 19 closing), Tencent shares fell 23.6%. The identity of Tencent’s shareholders has become a natural material for jokes, just like the LeTV investors in 2017.
The bottleneck of the game business has become obvious. The market saturation and the strengthening of supervision, Tencent’s future imagination can no longer lie on this cash cow. Games are the natural channel for realizing traffic business. It is still the main revenue and profit of Tencent in the future, but the growth point has to be different. At the same time, the short video of the headline also caused Tencent’s base camp instant messaging to be hit.
The crisis facing Tencent put this issue on the table: In the second half of the mobile Internet, what do the giants rely on to achieve sustained growth and support the imagination of the future?
The easy-to-do C-side business is almost done, and the giants have to focus on assets and less sexy B-side business. In the B-end market (here mainly refers to enterprise business, cloud computing business) Amazon and Microsoft have a first-mover advantage at this turning point to go more leisurely, and the late giants (such as Tencent) have to carry out drastic reforms.
On September 30 this year, Tencent made major structural adjustments: the establishment of the cloud and smart industry business group (CSIG) and the platform and content business group (PCG), retaining the original business development business group (CDG), interactive entertainment business group ( IEG), Technology Engineering Group (TEG), WeChat Group (WXG).
This is the first time after ten years of adjustment of Tencent’s architecture to enhance the strategic position of Tencent Cloud. Tencent’s cloud department has increased from more than 3,000 to more than 7,000. In 2018, Tencent launched the self-built data center projects in Jiangning, Guangdong Qingyuan, Hebei Huailai and Chongqing, which will follow the model of Alibaba Cloud’s self-built data center.
In the first half of the year, “Tencent has no dreams” caused an uproar, pointing to the deterioration of Tencent’s ability to innovate and seize strategic opportunities. Strategy is especially critical to the vitality of the giants. Amazon AWS is a model for winning strategic vision. Microsoft’s revival is also based on Nadella’s reform. Tencent has also embarked on this path this year.
In contrast, Tencent’s situation is also more difficult, because the head effect of the current cloud computing market has been very prominent.
Although Tencent Cloud started a little later, the growth should not be underestimated. In the third quarterly report, Tencent disclosed the revenue of the cloud business for the first time, exceeding 6 billion yuan, and increased by more than 100% for three consecutive quarters, exceeding market expectations. Tencent Cloud has been fully open since 2013 and has not yet entered Top 10 in 2015. In 2016, it has accounted for 7.34% in the Chinese market. According to the IDC report, Tencent’s market share in China’s public cloud (laaS) reached 10.3% in 2017 and rose to 11% in the first half of this year, ranking second in the Chinese market.
Cloud computing is a trillion-level market, and even a long-distance running track calculated in ten years. Tencent has unique advantages in capital and ecology. The time window for catching up still exists, making it a potential heavyweight player. .
Ma Yun announces retirement plan: Ali Empire enters transition period
Business influence: ★★★
Social attention: ★★★★★
Compared with Baidu, Tencent and Jingdong, Ali is relatively smooth this year. But Ma’s retirement has also caught the attention of the company’s future.
In the first generation of Internet amnesty, Ma Yun was the first person to “let go”. Ma Yun has ceased to serve as CEO of Alibaba since 2013.
This year’s Teacher’s Day, Ma Yun announced the inheritance plan: Alibaba’s 20th anniversary, on September 10, 2019, will no longer serve as the chairman of the group’s board of directors, replaced by Zhang Yong, and will also withdraw from the board of directors at the 2020 shareholders’ meeting.
Up to now, Ma Yun has a far-sighted vision in the grand strategy of Ali’s business empire: from Ali’s historical level of grasping Internet e-commerce, to the war with eBay to seize the Chinese market, and then to set up Ant Financial to get involved in finance, and then The promotion of mobile payment, as well as the layout of cloud computing in 2009, is now the core business that supports Ali’s imagination, and basically has no idea.
Although Ma Yun claimed to turn to be a “teacher”, Ma Yun is likely to continue to exert influence on the key layout of Ali’s future. In the letter announcing his retirement, Ma Yun also said that “the Alibaba partners and the partner mechanism will continue to work hard and contribute.”
For the giants like Ali, it is very important to choose the right successor, which is about whether the company can maintain long-term stable growth. Microsoft is a typical example. The second CEO, Ballmer, missed the opportunity of the mobile Internet. Nadella reversed the situation with cloud computing and let Microsoft return to its peak. IBM has been prospering for decades because IBM has a good CEO every once in a while, and Gerstner is the representative in the 1990s, which keeps the company standing in the ranks of the giants.
Ma Yun mentioned in an open letter that Zhang Yong has been in Alibaba for 11 years. Since he became the CEO of Alibaba Group, he has demonstrated outstanding business talent and determined leadership. He has achieved healthy and sustained growth in Alibaba’s performance for 13 consecutive quarters.
Ma Yun left Zhang Yong with a good hand, the e-commerce business developed steadily, the new retail layout was perfect, and the cloud computing market was in the first echelon. In the next few years, the key to testing Zhang Yong is how to maintain the stable and sustained growth of Ali’s performance. Just as Steve Jobs passed the torch to Cook, the expectations of the world CEO for Apple changed from an innovation leader to a career manager. Cook allowed Apple’s revenue and profits to grow. This year’s market value exceeded $1 trillion. , equivalent to more than doubled.
“Pre-Chairman” Zhang Yong has burned the first fire. On November 26, Zhang Yong announced that Ali has once again organized adjustments to enhance the status of cloud computing and Tmall: Alibaba Cloud business group will be upgraded to Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group and strengthen investment in intelligent Internet; Tmall upgraded to “Day “Cat”, formed the Tmall business group, Tmall supermarket business group, Tmall import and export business department three major sectors.
This is the fourth major organizational adjustment since Zhang Yong took over as CEO, mainly to prepare for the two major businesses of e-commerce and cloud computing. The next two years are the transition period of Ma Yun’s shift. Zhang Yong needs to maintain the position of Ali’s e-commerce business and win the battle of cloud computing.
US group acquires Mobai and shares bicycle “final”
Business influence: ★★★
Social attention: ★★★★
If there are no particularly large variables, ofo should be able to live through 2018, which seems a bit unbelievable. After all, from April of this year, its old rival Moby was acquired by the US group – in the eyes of many people, the company of ofo has been unable to achieve independence.
The industry has voiced that shared bikes have entered the final stage, and ofo has become the last floating straw in this phase.
2018 is undoubtedly a tough year for ofo. If there is media exposure at the end of last year and the use of user deposits by Mobow and the owing of huge amounts owed by suppliers, people’s feelings and judgments are not deep enough. This year, about the sharing of bicycles from the cusp to the situation, every step of the way It can be quantified with cruel reality.
The theme of “lack of money” runs through ofo’s entire 2018 year and marks the company’s precise footnotes for what happened this year.
After the E2-1 round of financing at the beginning of the year, the legendary “2-2” financing has not progressed so far. Instead, Mobai, which has had no funds for more than half a year, suddenly sold to the US group and ended the sharing of bicycles. Burning money. After that, theo insisted on independent development but frequently encountered bad news: the capital chain broke, layoffs, withdrawal from overseas, user deposits could not be withdrawn, lingering in financial lawsuits and moving to cheaper office space, deposits run down… Negative information It rains like a raindrop and is not airtight.
According to public information, the total amount of ofo’s total liabilities reached 6.5 billion yuan, of which the user deposit was about 3.6 billion yuan and the supply chain owed more than 1 billion yuan. In August of this year, ofo was also sue by the partner and bicycle manufacturer Shanghai Phoenix Enterprise (Group) Co., Ltd. for arrears of more than 68 million yuan. In the period of abundant capital, “burning money” is the norm for Internet companies, as long as financing can make up. However, the financing of ofo has been dragged from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and there has been no progress.
Everyone believes that ofo has no money, is acquired or even bankrupted, and any kind of ending is reasonable. Even if such a result appears in the next second, no one will be surprised.
Theo, who has no money, is still desperately looking for money, selling honey ads, and working with the financial platform to convert user deposits into P2P products. The company has never admitted that it has no money, but in reality, how to survive has become crucial.
In mid-November, Dai Wei opened a full-time meeting at ofo. He claimed: “ofo will not go bankrupt, others are possible.” But he also “recognizes” at this conference, if he can explore it last year. Ofo’s profit model, rather than pinning all hopes on investors and financing, may be different today.
This also means that Dai Wei is likely to have been reflecting. If the first half of the year accepts Didi or Ali’s acquisition, is it a good retreat for ofo?
From the perspective of realistic ideas and results, the successful “landing” of Mobai seems to be slightly better than half a year ago. Although it has fallen into a dilemma for the US group to aggravate losses and become a “black spot” in financial statements, it is no longer necessary to “self-reliance”. Bye, obviously, the mentality is very different.
But is this really the ending that ofo wants? At the last moment of landing, no one can become Dawei.
However, there is not much time left for Dave and ofo. In October this year, Dai Wei suddenly stepped down as the legal representative of the operating company and was replaced by the original supply chain leader. I understand that Dai Wei, who has been drawn from the corporate role, has put all his energy into all the possibilities of finding money, talking about acquisitions and “removing” bankruptcy.